Prediction Markets in a Nutshell (Augur / Gnosis)

today I want to talk about prediction markets and I’m going to about a concept in general and this applies to both the tokens auger and gnosis so let’s start off with one thing let’s make a crazy bet I’m going to bet you that it’s going to rain here tomorrow so just take a look at the weather not a single cloud in the sky so I guess it depends on the camera sees or not but it’s currently not a single cloud in the sky and most likely I’m going to be wrong so in a prediction market if I’m wrong and I place a bet they are placed a 1 etherpad then I’m going to lose up at and the winner who bets against me so if you bet against me then you’re going to win that one ether so that’s the whole concept of the prediction market and that sounds incredibly similar to gambling it’s doable basically it sounds like gambling and it probably in some states it’s considered gambling but there’s one interesting thing about prediction markets which is that when the more you win or if you consistently place good bet you’re going to win more and more and you’re going to bet more you can you can bet more and more because now you’re winning you know and you’re moving forward and you’re getting richer as time progresses but the general trend of the bet it’s going to be more accurate so that’s an incredibly cool theory and that’s been put forward for a long long time ago and it’s nothing really new and prediction markets have been around for a while but prediction markets have been used by very very very powerful companies in the past for example even Google uses prediction markets sometimes to predict you know when to launch a product so they do internal betting in their company they also there’s also form a pseudo companies who use this idea and more the key point right now is that by enabling this prediction market to go on plot the blockchain we gain some additional insight we did gain more ways for people to kind of place their kind of bet and then we get more ways for you know different corporations to get involved so eventually hopefully we will move towards the future where everything is going to be more accurate and what motivates people to be accurate is that the pudding is taken now if you people would just you know vote it if they were just pulled on the streets about this and we use the crowds knowledge that way then your grams going to be a problem where people just might not care and not do their research but if you put your money to it that philosophy behind that is that if you put your money to it and you have something to lose if you have a stake in this then you’re going to try your best to find the most accurate sources of information I rely on it and even some crazy-ass but you know back to the weather example what if you have a funny bone or you know something that activates when it’s about to and it indicates it’s going to rain tomorrow you know you know it can place a bet with that and maybe your funny bones always right and it was if that the case you’re going to consistently win the bet every single time I don’t using a word pet and I’m using you know that’s probably the easiest way to understand it but it’s probably not the best word for so now as I said before there are two major projects are doing this one it’s called gnosis as one is called augur and both of them have received crazy crazy amounts of money for in their I feel so that’s going to be a quite exciting time for this whole market and I actually do see a lot coming out of this I mean it’s going to be a great way to utilize these prediction markets and it’s maybe going to tell us a bit about the future but of course there are some states as I said before that don’t accept prediction markets and that’s because some events cannot be predicted for example if you throw a dice right or throw a coin a better example it’s going to align on either heads or tails and there’s a 50/50 chance and there’s no way to actually gain an accurate prediction of what it’s going to be other than just saying okay it’s 50/50 the fair is a fair coin so in those cases it will be just pure gambling right so sometimes it’s very hard and realize you identify cases where it’s going to be very very even split and also a prediction Rockets have been wrong in the past for example on Brixton there are some reports that prediction markets have always predicted that Britain is going to stay in the EU but the result was the opposite so not all cases can use prediction markets and also all prediction markets are correct anyways I hope you guys enjoyed this video I’m going to do a comparison between gnosis the auger in my next video so stay tuned for that and remember to like and subscribe to this video thanks for watching

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